Bitcoin Tests Critical $75K Support as Markets Enter New Week

Bitcoin enters the first full trading week of February under sustained pressure, hovering near $78,000 on Monday after weekend lows of $74,662 triggered the largest liquidation event in cryptocurrency history. Despite a modest recovery from Saturday's selloff, thin liquidity and cautious positioning continue to dominate market dynamics.

As traditional markets reopen, traders are watching whether the $75,000-$76,000 zone—which coincides with Strategy's average acquisition cost—can hold as support, or if further downside awaits.

Current Market Snapshot

Bitcoin: $78,000 (-0.3% on Monday)
Ethereum: $2,350 (-1.6%)
Solana: $104 (+0.8%)
XRP: $1.62 (+3.2%)

Bitcoin 24h Range: $76,937 - $78,358
Total Market Cap: ~$2.54 trillion

After plunging 40% from its October peak of $126,000, Bitcoin now trades at levels last seen in April 2025. The weekend's record $2.5 billion liquidation event cleared excessive leverage from the market, but the question remains whether enough selling pressure has been flushed out to support a sustainable recovery.

Weekend Damage Still Visible

Weekend crash to $74,662 left lasting impacts on market structure. While Bitcoin has recovered roughly $3,000 from the weekend low, the bounce has been choppy and unconvincing. Trading volumes remain elevated, but order book depth is still down approximately 30% from October levels—a structural weakness that amplifies both selloffs and rebounds.

The CME futures market, which was closed during Saturday's violence, reopened Monday with a significant gap—futures currently trade around $75,110, roughly $3,000 below where they closed Friday. This $6,830 gap represents the second-largest in Bitcoin futures history and reflects institutional caution about positioning aggressively during such uncertain conditions.

Historically, CME gaps tend to get "filled" as price action gravitates back toward the disconnected level. However, whether that happens through upward price movement or further declines remains unclear.

Key Support Zone Under Pressure

The $75,000-$76,000 range has emerged as the critical battleground for Bitcoin's near-term direction. This zone carries extra significance because it marks Strategy's average cost basis of $76,037 for its 712,647 BTC holdings.

While Strategy faces no forced selling risk—all holdings are unencumbered and debt doesn't mature until 2027—the psychological weight of the largest corporate Bitcoin holder being underwater adds to market uncertainty. Executive Chairman Michael Saylor's Sunday post stating "More Orange" signals continued buying conviction, but whether that's sufficient to stabilize prices in the near term is questionable.

Support levels being watched:

$75,000-$76,000: Current range, Strategy cost basis
$70,000: Major psychological level
$60,000: Mid-2024 support zone

Resistance to overcome:

$80,000: Near-term ceiling
$85,000: Former 100-week moving average support, now resistance
$90,000+: Would signal trend reversal

Macro Backdrop Remains Challenging

Beyond technical levels, the broader macro environment continues to weigh on risk assets. U.S.-Iran geopolitical tensions that sparked Saturday's selloff have eased somewhat, but haven't fully resolved. Meanwhile, a stronger dollar following Kevin Warsh's Federal Reserve nomination adds persistent pressure on USD-denominated assets.

Gold has recovered modestly from Friday's 9% crash to trade around $4,750 per ounce, but remains well off recent highs. The synchronized weakness across traditional safe havens and crypto suggests deeper concerns about market liquidity and positioning rather than isolated crypto-specific issues.

The week ahead brings several potential catalysts:

US labor data: Jobs numbers could shift Fed policy expectations
Strategy earnings: Market will scrutinize Bitcoin acquisition strategy
ETF flows: After $1+ billion in outflows last week, direction matters

Altcoin Performance Mixed

Major altcoins are showing divergent behavior as traders rotate between risk appetite and defensive positioning:

Outperformers Monday:

XRP: +3.2% (benefiting from oversold bounce)
Solana: +0.8% (holding above $100 support)

Underperformers:

Ethereum: -1.6% (struggling below $2,400)
Most DeFi tokens: -2% to -4% (continued leverage flush)

The mixed performance suggests no clear directional conviction yet. Altcoins typically follow Bitcoin's lead with amplified moves, so their current indecision mirrors the broader market's uncertainty about whether weekend lows will hold.

Derivatives Signal Caution

Options markets tell a cautionary tale. The $75,000 put option—representing bets on further declines—now carries nearly identical open interest to the $100,000 call option that dominated positioning just weeks ago. This dramatic shift reflects traders hedging against downside rather than chasing upside.

Bitcoin perpetual funding rates have turned negative, indicating more short positions than longs—a reversal from the overleveraged long positions that contributed to Saturday's cascade. While negative funding can set up short squeezes if positive news emerges, it also suggests diminished appetite for bullish bets.

Liquidity Remains the Story

The common thread connecting weekend volatility to Monday's cautious trading is thin liquidity. The October 10 liquidity crisis—which some attribute to issues at major exchanges—never fully healed. Order books remain fragile, market depth is significantly below historical norms, and the resulting environment allows relatively modest capital flows to drive outsized price moves.

This structural weakness means both sharp selloffs and violent rebounds can happen with little warning. For traders, it creates a treacherous environment where stop losses get run easily and support levels break faster than fundamentals would justify.

For longer-term holders, it suggests waiting for clearer signs of stabilization rather than trying to time exact bottoms.

What's Next?

Monday's price action will set an important tone for the week. If Bitcoin can hold above $76,000 and begin reclaiming the $80,000 level, it would suggest Saturday's low was indeed a capitulation event that flushed out weak hands.

However, failure to hold current levels—especially if accompanied by another wave of liquidations—could open the door to tests of $70,000 or lower. The prevailing technical damage and still-elevated fear levels suggest patience remains the better strategy.

Weekend crashes have historically presented accumulation opportunities, but confirming those opportunities often requires time for market structure to heal and for clearer signs of institutional re-entry. With ETF flows still negative and positioning cautious, that confirmation hasn't arrived yet.

As markets digest the weekend's violence and assess whether deeper macroeconomic concerns are warranting continued defensive positioning, Bitcoin's ability to hold or reclaim the $75,000-$80,000 range will determine whether February becomes a month of recovery or continued consolidation.

Data Sources: CoinDesk, Yahoo Finance, CoinGecko, CoinMarketCap