Bitcoin Crashes to $60K—Down 50% From Peak as 'Supercycle
Bitcoin plunged to $60,033 during Asian trading hours Thursday night, marking a catastrophic 50% decline from its October 2025 all-time high of approximately $126,000 and delivering the worst single-day performance since the FTX collapse in November 2022. The crash, which saw Bitcoin briefly touch its lowest level since October 2024, has obliterated the "supercycle" narrative that dominated crypto discourse throughout much of 2025 and wiped out every penny of gains accumulated since President Trump's election victory.
The selloff triggered $2.6 billion in forced liquidations across the crypto market, with Bitcoin accounting for a significant portion as leveraged traders were wiped out in cascading margin calls. The cryptocurrency has now fallen nearly 30% in a single week—one of the sharpest weekly declines in its history—and sits more than 40% below its year-to-date starting price.
After touching the $60,033 low during Asian hours, Bitcoin has staged a modest recovery to trade around $64,000-$65,000 as of midday in Europe, but the technical damage is severe and sentiment has collapsed to levels not seen since the depths of the 2022 bear market.
The Death of the Supercycle Narrative
For months, crypto bulls championed the "supercycle" thesis—the idea that Bitcoin had entered a fundamentally different market regime driven by institutional adoption, spot ETF approval, and a pro-crypto Trump administration that would propel prices to $200,000 or beyond without experiencing a traditional 80% bear market drawdown.
That narrative lies in ruins. Bitcoin has now retraced 50% from peak to trough, matching the severity of past bear markets and demolishing the notion that "this time is different." The asset that was supposed to serve as "digital gold" and a hedge against macroeconomic uncertainty has instead traded in lockstep with risk assets, plunging alongside tech stocks and even accelerating losses as traditional safe havens like gold rallied.
After breaking below $70,000 just yesterday, Bitcoin has blown through multiple support levels that bulls had identified as likely floors. The Compass Point analysts' prediction of a bottom between $60,000 and $68,000 is now being tested in real-time, and whether that support holds will determine if the crypto market faces further capitulation or begins the slow process of forming a base.
Institutional Exodus Accelerates
The most troubling aspect of this week's carnage is the complete reversal in institutional demand. US spot Bitcoin ETFs, which purchased 46,000 Bitcoin last year, have turned into net sellers in 2026, shedding $6.2 billion in capital—the longest sustained outflow streak since launch.
Recent outflows have been brutal: $818 million on January 29, $545 million on February 4, and $510 million before the weekend. More than 50% of ETF holders are now underwater, with average purchase prices around $90,000.
"Institutional investors are really unwinding their cryptocurrency holdings," Markus Thielen of 10X Research told CNBC. "These large outflows during U.S. trading hours [show] those investors throwing in the towel."
The institutions that were supposed to provide a price floor have instead become a source of relentless selling pressure.
$2.6 Billion Liquidation Cascade
The crash to $60,000 unleashed a wave of forced liquidations totaling $2.6 billion across the cryptocurrency market, with more than $1 billion liquidated in a single 24-hour period. The vast majority—approximately $980 million—came from bullish leveraged long positions that were forcibly closed when Bitcoin broke through key support levels.
The liquidations followed a familiar pattern: as Bitcoin broke below $70,000, stop-loss orders triggered, which pushed prices lower and activated more liquidations in a self-reinforcing cascade. Traders who had positioned for a bounce off the $70,000 level using leverage found themselves wiped out as the floor gave way and Bitcoin accelerated to the downside.
Unusual activity in BlackRock's IBIT spot Bitcoin ETF has sparked speculation about the source of the selling. The ETF posted its highest-ever trading volume at $10.7 billion Thursday, alongside a record $900 million in options premium. Some analysts have suggested the pattern indicates options-driven liquidations from large institutional players rather than typical crypto-native leverage unwinding, potentially pointing to a hidden fund blowup or forced deleveraging at a major financial institution.
Market-Wide Devastation
Bitcoin's crash has dragged the entire crypto market into the abyss, wiping $350 billion on February 6 alone. Over the past week, half a trillion dollars has evaporated, with cumulative 22-day losses exceeding $900 billion.
Ethereum crashed below the psychological $2,000 level, down 33% for the week and more than 60% from its all-time high. Solana plunged below $80 after breaking $100 support, down 40% weekly and 70% from peak. XRP has fallen more than 60% from its highs.
Even silver plunged 14% in a single day, suggesting the selloff has extended beyond crypto as traders reduce risk across all speculative assets.
Technical Breakdown Suggests More Downside
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin's chart has turned decisively bearish. The cryptocurrency broke below its 365-day moving average for the first time since March 2022, a development that historically signals extended bear market conditions. Both the 50-day and 200-day exponential moving averages are now sloping downward, creating a "death cross" pattern that typically precedes further weakness.
The Fear and Greed Index has plunged to 14, corresponding to "extreme fear" territory and matching levels last seen during the depths of previous bear markets. Momentum indicators show accelerating downside momentum rather than signs of exhaustion, suggesting the selling may not be finished.
Analysts have identified key support levels to watch. The immediate zone is the Compass Point-predicted $60,000-$68,000 range, where 7% of long-term holder Bitcoin was acquired and which represents a potential floor. If that breaks, the next support sits around $58,000-$60,000 where the 200-day moving average currently resides. A failure there could open the door to $55,000 or even lower.
Some forecasts have turned decidedly grim. Stifel Financial warned earlier this week that Bitcoin could fall to $38,000, while 10X Research estimates a potential drop to $50,000 after any near-term bounce. These targets, once dismissed as overly bearish, now appear within the realm of possibility as support levels crumble.
The Road Ahead
Bitcoin's crash to $60,000 and 50% decline from peak marks the definitive end of the supercycle narrative and the beginning of what appears to be a traditional crypto bear market. All the hallmarks are present: institutional selling, retail capitulation, cascading liquidations, and a complete breakdown of the bullish thesis that sustained prices through 2025.
The question now is whether $60,000 represents a floor where long-term holders will defend their cost basis, or merely a waystation on the path to deeper lows. With ETF outflows continuing, technical indicators firmly bearish, and macroeconomic headwinds intensifying, the path of least resistance appears to be lower in the near term.
For investors who bought into the supercycle story at or near the $126,000 peak, the 50% drawdown represents a brutal reality check. The asset that was supposed to revolutionize finance and serve as a superior store of value has instead delivered one of the most painful crashes in its volatile history.
Whether this marks the final capitulation before a bottom or the beginning of an even deeper decline will depend on factors ranging from institutional behavior to macroeconomic conditions to the resolution of questions about Bitcoin's long-term value proposition. What's certain is that the easy money phase of this cycle is over, and anyone still holding is facing the test that separates true believers from momentum chasers.
The supercycle is dead. Long live the bear market.
Data Sources: Bloomberg, CNBC, CoinDesk, Crypto Valley Journal, Business Standard, Cryptonews
Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Cryptocurrency investments carry risk. Always do your own research. See our Financial Disclaimer for details.