Supreme Court Tariff Ruling Today: Bitcoin Braces for $140 Billion Shock

The crypto market is holding its breath. At 10 AM ET today , the US Supreme Court delivers its verdict on Trump's controversial tariffs—and Bitcoin could face violent swings.

What's at Stake

Trump imposed sweeping tariffs in April 2025 using emergency powers. Lower courts ruled it illegal. If the Supreme Court agrees:

Treasury refunds $133-140 billion to importers
Trump loses $600B in claimed revenue
Markets reprice fiscal risk instantly

If Trump wins, the President gains unprecedented tax authority without Congressional approval.

Market Odds Say Trump Loses

Polymarket: 76% chance tariffs get struck down

Some traders call today "the worst day of 2026," warning of bond spikes and equity crashes. But Tom Lee (Fundstrat) sees a contrarian signal: "When fear is widespread and priced in, markets often bottom."

Bitcoin's Dangerous Position

BTC trades at $90,800, down from $94K this week. But Bitcoin's 7-day volatility sits near multi-month lows—a disconnect that rarely lasts.

Also happening today:

$2.2B in BTC/ETH options expire (max pain: $90K/$3,100)
US Jobs Report: Expected weak (bullish for rate cuts)

$60 billion in open interest waits to reprice.

Why Crypto Cares

Tariffs don't affect Bitcoin's blockchain. But macro shocks hit risk assets hard.

History: BTC dropped to $74K during 2025 tariff announcements before rebounding.

Three scenarios:

Tariffs upheld → Relief rally
Tariffs struck down → Volatility, then clarity
Narrow ruling → Choppy confusion

The Long-Term View

One ruling won't change crypto's 2026 trajectory:

Stripe's Tempo blockchain launching
PayPal PYUSD up 600%
CLARITY Act votes January 15
Stablecoins at $420B

But it could create a violent short-term entry point.

Ruling expected: 10 AM ET / 4 PM CET

References:

Bloomberg (January 8, 2026)
CNBC (January 8, 2026)
Polymarket prediction markets
BeInCrypto (January 9, 2026)
CryptoSlate (January 7, 2026)